1. Nobody would’ve predicted that probability expert Nate Silver is leaving The New York Times for ESPN. It’s no question that Silver had a particular influence on young blog-following, non-newspaper readers interested in politics. His presence in the 2012 election was, for many, a game changer. So why is he leaving? The New York Times blog speculates.
Nate Silver's interview with Fresh Air for his book The Signal And The Noise looks at prediction and data in the internet age:

Sometimes, there’s a tendency to take the result, the poll that is most out of line with the consensus because it tells the most dramatic headline…so I do urge caution about becoming attached or overly despondent about any one polling result.

image via CSG
View in High-Res

    Nobody would’ve predicted that probability expert Nate Silver is leaving The New York Times for ESPN. It’s no question that Silver had a particular influence on young blog-following, non-newspaper readers interested in politics. His presence in the 2012 election was, for many, a game changer. So why is he leaving? The New York Times blog speculates.

    Nate Silver's interview with Fresh Air for his book The Signal And The Noise looks at prediction and data in the internet age:

    Sometimes, there’s a tendency to take the result, the poll that is most out of line with the consensus because it tells the most dramatic headline…so I do urge caution about becoming attached or overly despondent about any one polling result.


    image via CSG


  2. fresh air

    interview

    nate silver

    new york times

    espn

    the signal and the noise

  1. You can build a statistical model and that’s all well and good, but if you’re dealing with a new type of financial instrument, for example, or a new type of situation — then the choices you’re making are pretty arbitrary in a lot of respects. You have a lot of choices when you’re designing the model about what assumptions to make. For example, the rating agencies assume basically that housing prices would behave as they had over the previous two decades, during which time there had always been steady or rising housing prices. They could have looked, for example, at what happened during the Japanese real estate bubble, where you had a big crash and having diversified apartments all over Tokyo would not have helped you with that when everything was sinking — so they made some very optimistic assumptions that, not coincidentally, happened to help them give these securities better ratings and make more money.

    —  Nate Silver on the bias of statistical models

  2. Nate Silver

    Fresh Air

    The Signal and the Noise